COVID-19 Scenario Analysis Tool

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London

Note: Simulation outputs should not be interpreted as predictions

Version

Versions numbers for the Covid-19 Scenario Analysis Tool are in the following format <VV.YYYYMMDD>, where VV refers to the version of the algorithm and user interface, and YYYYMMDD is the date of the latest real-world data used as the input.

Release Notes

New versions of the datasets that are used as inputs to the model are released daily and new dated versions of the model will therefore appear on this website each day. Changes to the software and user interface will happen from time to time, and release notes for each of these releases are detailed below:

Version 1

First version of the Tool. Version 1 allows the user to:

  • Visualise numbers of reported deaths and model-based estimates of the prevalence of infections, the numbers requiring general hospital and critical care beds, and deaths due to COVID-19;
  • Input estimates of the availability of general care and critical care hospital beds in the country to capture the impact of healthcare constraints on mortality and to compare healthcare needs with the likely requirement at peak hospital demand;
  • Project healthcare need (the maximum number of general care and critical care hospital beds required and the date of peak in hospitalisations) for a range of different scenarios;
  • Compare model outcomes for an unmitigated epidemic (no interventions) to those with partial or full movement restrictions currently implemented (or future interventions for those countries yet to implement partial or full movement restrictions);
  • Compare model outcomes by the duration of intervention;
  • Explore either an increase or decrease in intervention effectiveness from the current date onwards;
  • Explore different options for maintaining transmission reduction after the initial intervention is relaxed;
  • Export model outcomes as csv files for further analysis or presentation.