COVID-19 Scenario Analysis Tool

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London

Note: Simulation outputs should not be interpreted as predictions


Versions numbers for the Covid-19 Scenario Analysis Tool are in the following format <VV.YYYYMMDD>, where VV refers to the version of the algorithm and user interface, and YYYYMMDD is the date of the latest real-world data used as the input.

Release Notes

New versions of the datasets that are used as inputs to the model are released daily and new dated versions of the model will therefore appear on this website each day. Changes to the software and user interface will happen from time to time, and release notes for each of these releases are detailed below:

Version 1

First version of the Tool. Version 1 allows the user to:

  • Visualise numbers of reported deaths and model-based estimates of the prevalence of infections, the numbers requiring general hospital and critical care beds, and deaths due to COVID-19;
  • Input estimates of the availability of general care and critical care hospital beds in the country to capture the impact of healthcare constraints on mortality and to compare healthcare needs with the likely requirement at peak hospital demand;
  • Project healthcare need (the maximum number of general care and critical care hospital beds required and the date of peak in hospitalisations) for a range of different scenarios;
  • Compare model outcomes for an unmitigated epidemic (no interventions) to those with partial or full movement restrictions currently implemented (or future interventions for those countries yet to implement partial or full movement restrictions);
  • Compare model outcomes by the duration of intervention;
  • Explore either an increase or decrease in intervention effectiveness from the current date onwards;
  • Explore different options for maintaining transmission reduction after the initial intervention is relaxed;
  • Export model outcomes as csv files for further analysis or presentation.

Version 2

The second version of the Tool included minor modifications::

  • General stability and visual improvements;
  • Data selector user interface element;
  • Date range selector user interface element.

Version 3

The epidemiological situation has changed for most countries since versions 1 and 2 of the COVID-19 Scenario Analysis Tool were released. In the majority of countries, the most stringent intervention measures, which were introduced as a first response to the pandemic, have been relaxed in a phased manner, with sets of interventions subsequently being switched on and off in response to changes in the epidemic growth rate. Version 3 has been developed to allow the user to explore the effects of switching between such intervention intensity levels by changing the value of the reproductive number, Rt. The user can specify multiple phases of intervention, each with their own Rt value, to explore the impact on the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory and healthcare demands. More specifically, version 3 allows:

  • Exploration of the impact of multiple phases of interventions: user can specify different values for the reproductive number to reflect different intensities of intervention measures over different time periods;
  • Analysis of more countries: all high-income countries that have reported COVID-19 deaths to date;
  • Reproductive number Rt is plotted over time;
  • Effective reproduction number Reff, which accounts for the impact of immunity on transmission, plotted over time;
  • Graphs can be downloaded as png files.